The Sweet (but inexact) Science

Boxing is often referred to by sports enthusiast as "the sweet science", politics has something of its own science, however it perhaps is much less sweet, and even more inexact. That science is predicting who will be a candidate's running mate. Some pundits and so called experts like to look at what a potential VP can bring to a ticket. Some think that a strong VP choice can cover a candidate's weakness or magnify a strength. Others think a VP choice could move a state from being a swing state to one that's solidly for one candidate. All of those items can be factors in the choosing of a VP this election cycle, and there are interesting and qualified candidates on both sides

The Republican situation is very simple. There is one clear choice and that is Gov. Bobby Jindal. He would be perfect for the Republican ticket. He is young (37 years old) intelligent, and has a good amount of charisma to offset Sen. Obama's candidacy. It is not necessarily in Jindal's or the Republican party's best interest for Jindal to be a VP candidate right now. Jindal's career is mirroring Sen. Obama's back in 2004 and it would actually do more for the candidate to have Sen. Obama win in 2008. Then Gov. Jindal and the Republican party can ride the nation's "wave of diversity" and run in either 2012 or 2016. Either way that leaves Sen. McCain with some familiar choices.

One choice is fmr. Ohio Congressman Rob Portman. Portman seems logical because he has been a longtime ally of McCain's and could prove pivotal in helping a swing state like Ohio go McCain's way. Portman also has served as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. This would lend credibility on the issue of economics which is one Sen. McCain admittedly doesn't know as much about as he should. Another name that's been thrown around that would help McCain on economics is fmr. Governor Mitt Romney. Romney was a rival of McCain' s in the primary but his fiscal prowess could prove to help the Senator in the general election. There are a few others on the list as names being thrown around for Sen. McCain's running mate including Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Crist is another ally of Sen. McCain but has questions regarding his personal life that may turn conservative voters off. We'll get back to Gov. Pawlenty later

Sen. Barack Obama is in a unique position. As the first man of African descent to be the Democratic Party's nominee for President his choice has to balance not just policy or geographical differences but it must also be a comfortable choice for whites who are still unwilling to vote for a man of African descent. Some pundits have gone as far as saying that Sen. Obama should choose a "traditional, boring white male politician". With that being seemigly the popular logic, many expect to see Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana named as his running mate. Bayh supported Sen. Clinton in the primary so he would be able to bring back some of her disenchanted base. Also he has served on the Armed Forces committee, so that could speak to the foreign policy credentials that Sen. Obama's critics say he lacks. Furthermore Sen. Bayh is popular in his home state of Indiana, a state that could be pivotal in the 2008 election. Another popular name thrown around is that of Sen. Joseph Biden. Sen. Biden is currently the chair of Senate Foreign Relations committee, and is a veteran of the Senate and Capitol Hill having served on the Hill for 35 years.

There are still wild cards for each candidate. Sen. Joseph Lieberman was the Democratic party's nominee for VP in 2000. He is a friend of Sen. McCain and has even gone out campaigning for him. Some speculate that McCain could choose Lieberman because of the appeal he would have to independent voters. To that end Sen. Obama has a very good working relationship with Sen. Chuck Hagel. Sen. Hagel accompanied Obama on parts of his overseas trip. Sen. Hagel also said it is possible he could endorse Obama, but doubts that would happen. Sen. Hagel has been one of the loudest voices of dissent about the war in Iraq from the Republican party. Also, choosing a Republican VP would be consistent with Obama's claims to be above partisan politics. One of the names swirling the fastest on the rumor mill is Va. Governor Tim Kaine. He and Sen. Jim Webb from Va. are supposedly very high on Obama's shortlist. With all of these possibilities it seems a bit ironic that its called a "shortlist" For what its worth I see the VP's being Tim Pawlenty for McCain and Evan Bayh for Obama.

Pawlenty is young, charismatic, has executive experience from servings as Governor of Minnesota, and he is popular in a swing state. Regardless if a McCain/Pawlenty ticket were to win, you can expect to see Pawlenty on the national scene for quite some time. Sen. Bayh wins because he is everything Barack Obama is not without seeming too far off from Obama's message of change. Though it would be very enticing to select Gov. Kaine, the issue of foreign policy may outweigh executive experience. Also with Sen. Bayh, you get both because of his time as Governor of Indiana. Also extra bonuses Obama would get with Bayh, is a moderate midwesterner who President Clinton asked to deliver the keynote address at the 1996 Democratical National Convention.

After all of this reasoning and speculation the VP choices could have nothing to do with region or adding anything new to the ticket. President Bush chose Dick Cheney and Republicans had safely won Wyoming (Cheney's home state) in the two general elections prior to the Bush Administration Politically Bush and Cheney were cut from the same cloth and its not like Cheney added anything new or different from an ideological standpoint. Fmr. President Bill Clinton chose fellow southerner Al Gore as his running mate and he won two consecutive terms in the White House. This just goes to show you that trying to predict a VP choice is simply just for fun. It allows so called pundits and experts to show how right (or wrong) they are at understanding this sweet inexact science we call politics.