The Swinging States

Around this time of year during a presidential election season, people begin to discuss the swing states. A general definition of a swing state is a state that is not overwhelmingly and consistenly won by a particular party. In the two most recent elections swing states have been a major point of interest because they have secured the election for George Bush. In 2004, people protested the election results in Ohio citing the unfair distribution of voting stations based on population. The Ohio results were also called into question because of then Secretary of the State (of Ohio) Ken Blackwell's on the record proclamation that he would do everything in his power to see that George Bush won Ohio. The conflict of interest comes because it is the Secretary of State's job to oversee elections and ensure the fairness of elections. In 2000 Florida was at the center of controversy as the hotly contested election results were taken all the way to the Supreme Court


This election cycle swing states are still expected to play a huge role. Senator Obama and the Democratic National Committe have committed to their "Red to Blue" program which aims to make red states (states that usually vote Republican) blue (states that vote democrat). With this intiative states such as Virginia, Nevada, and Indiana which were won by Bush in both of the past two elections are very much in play. Those states along with Colorado, Montana and to a lesser extent Kansas, Georgia, and Alaska, are all reasonable for Obama. As always places like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Missouri and Florida will receive a good deal of resources from both campaigns. This is understandable considering that of the last nine presidential elections the candidate who has won Ohio and Missouri has won the election. Florida has voted in favor of the winner in eight of the last nine presidential elections. Altogether these states are sure to be the center of much conversation in the coming months.

In order to get a grip on the states that may be significant points of interest, you can begin to look at Colorado. Many will say that Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania matter more because of the amount of electoral votes they posses, but those states will be throrougly examined in the coming months. Colorado is a little tougher to figure out. In the past two elections Colorado has voted with the Republican ticket. However, Colorado has a Democrat in the Governor's mansion. Its two senate seats are divided with one held by a Democrat and one held by a Republican. Although a Democrat, Gov. Ritter is known for having a pro-life stance, despite threatening to veto any legistlation that sought to completely ban abortion. The state is the true epitome of a swing state. It has a very "green" record, yet holds the second amendment with the highest regard. It will be difficult to tell who will come out on top in this state.

Virginia is another state that will be under a close eye. All political trends point to Obama taking the commonwealth. Obama will be joined lower down the ballot by a wildly successful former Governor seeking a Senate seat, he (Obama) was endorsed (while the primaries were still up for grabs) by the current Governor and won his primary there by 29 points. Those factors alone would lead someone to think Virginia is his for the taking. The only problem is that Virginia has gone for the Republican candidate in the last nine elections, and is generally thought to be a rather conservative state. Though the state seems to be trending to the center, Sen. McCain positioning himself as the "maverick" and not as an prototypical Republican gives him a better chance to win a state which looks like it should be going for Obama.

The two states examined provide just a glimpse into the endless possibilites swing states hold. Because of these candidates unique appeal to voters of both of the major parties, many more states are in play than normal. Pennsylvania, for example is considered a major swing state this election cycle despite going for the Democratic candidate in the last four election cycles. As the topic of swing states gets mentioned, one thing that creeps into the minds of many is the question of fairness. As previously mentioned Florida and Ohio were the source of a great deal of controversy in 2000 and 2004. Whatever state turns this year's presidential election, let's hope the cloud of controversy avoids it.